SUMMARY

In summary, we propose the modernization of PAG-ASA IT capabilities by:

(1) Adopting newer and powerful forecasting software models

(2) Creating affiliation with international authorities in the field of meteorology to gain access to real-time and updated meteorological data, technology and knowledge, and

(3) Establishing an integrated and uninterruptible local data/communication network with LGUs and local authorities involved in disaster management activities

These can dramatically elevate PAG-ASA’s value in delivering timely and relevant weather information that aim to prevent or manage disasters resulting from atmospheric and other geophysical disturbances in the country. In today’s world of climate change brought by man-made global warming, PAG-ASA is becoming a very important organization that must be modernized in terms of its IT capabilities in order to be well-equipped in providing timely and accurate information that can minimize if not totally prevent destruction of properties and loss of lives.

Our Proposal to PAG-ASA (3)

Our third proposal is for PAG-ASA to establish an integrated data/communication and disaster management system with important organizations such as the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC), Local Government Units (LGU), Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), Philippine National Police (PNP) and the mass media. We’re not saying that presently there is none, however, we feel that there is much more room for improvement. During times of disaster especially typhoons, more probable than not that coordination efforts for preventive and damage management are very difficult to execute since communication networks and cable lines are very vulnerable to physical damages. Thus, it will be ineffective for PAG-ASA to just have the information available and yet was not disseminated on time to the general public and authorities at stake.

It would be a better solution if PAG-ASA will be able to establish on each of the Local Government Units (LGU) and concerned authorities previously mentioned a network of self-sustaining and dedicated satellite phones/computerized terminals which will act as transmitter/receiver/repository of voice/data exchanges to and from PAG-ASA. The network system is not solely aimed for coordination purposes but can also be sources of data inputs linked from atmospheric devices responsible in gauging the prevailing atmospheric conditions and variables within the area. Such data can be automatically uploaded to the central server of PAG-ASA for monitoring and assessment as to the gravity of the typhoon for example. PAG-ASA can therefore create a real-time assessment and prediction of the actual and future weather conditions based on these pieces of information on top of the qualitative reports from stationed personnel. Updated weather condition advisories and statistical reports will also be automatically transmitted back to the computerized terminals stationed at the different offices of the NDCC, AFP, PNP and LGUs for their own consumption and action plan.

We are suggesting an integrated communication system through a client-server architectural set-up in a wide area network (WAN) between PAG-ASA and local authorities such that crucial information for meteorological/weather condition assessment aimed to support swift and intelligible decisions can be easily communicated for effective disaster management planning and implementation. A reliable communication line through a dedicated network can help authorities in mapping the extent of disaster prioritizing action plans and allocating limited resources.

The network design is based on “client-server” architecture with PAG-ASA as the “central database server” gathering weather-related and other pertinent information directly from the LGUs of affected areas and from the concerned government authorities (clients). PAG-ASA will then process these data into useful and timely weather advisories to be broadcasted to the public and to be transmitted to the concerned authorities through the NDCC. The latter will be the one responsible in coordinating the necessary actions for preventive and/or disaster management activities. Computerized terminals (clients) installed in the offices of the LGUs and public authorities that form part of this integrated data/communication network should be designed to run on batteries or on minimal power supply.

Data interchange and transmission will be via satellite and mobile telephony technology. This way, even at the onset of power supply loss, important weather information can still be made available to and from the central database at PAG-ASA and to the LGUs and other concerned authorities linked in the network. Later on, it can be an option that this integrated data/communication network system may be made available to the public through mobile telecommunication services so that real-time updated weather information can be easily accessed and disseminated. Presently, PAG-ASA’s weather advisory is partly communicated through mass media channel but that may prove not as a long-term and reliable solution since it will reach limited audience and will result to poor coordination especially during absence of power supply in the affected areas.

Our Proposal to PAG-ASA (2)

Secondly, PAG-ASA must start building affiliation with known international weather agencies and laboratories worldwide in order to gain access to valuable databases, information and knowledge archives in the field of meteorology, hydrology and even environment. This collaborative relationship will enrich PAG-ASA with vast amount of data that it can use in its operational forecasting and research objectives.

For example, a consortium of European enterprises and research centers from various disciplines funded and supported a research and development project collectively known as the SIMDAT which recently developed the Virtual Global Information System Centre (VGISC). IT is initially meant for the meteorological services of France, Germany and the UK but is likely to become a worldwide commodity. If PAG-ASA can have access to this VGISC which is a one-stop-shop IT solution system that provides the meteorological community users worldwide a secure and convenient access over the internet to a shared database of meteorological data, then aside from availing immediate analysis services, computational power and user-friendly platform for data storage, PAG-ASA through VGISC can also engage in interactive exchanges of data concerning weather forecasts, disaster management and research among users from all over the world.

VGSIC prevents multiplicity of systems, duplication of efforts, inefficiencies as well as incompatibilities which makes it an efficient and cost-effective IT solution for users not only in the field of weather forecasting but also in disciplines like automotive, aerospace and pharmaceuticals. The infrastructure of VGISC is based on an interconnected network of databases. Data interchanges are done using algorithms derived from mobile telephony technology and metadata synchronization system. VGSIC is also based on the Grid technology which basically is an Open Grid Service Architecture Data Access and Integration (OGSA-DAI) patterned on web services technology concepts. Database synchronization and archive integration features of VGSIC use an Open Archive Initiative (OAI) standard protocols.
VGISC software has been developed by the ECMWF, DWD, Météo France, the UK Met Office, EUMETSAT and other SIMDAT partners. The project is coordinated by the Fraunhofer Institute SCAI in Sankt Augustin, Germany. The Fraunhofer Institute for Algorithms and Scientific Computing engages in computer simulations for product and process development and is a strong partner in industry. SCAI designs and optimizes industrial applications and makes calculations on high-performance computers. Fraunhofer Gesellschaft undertakes applied research of direct use to private and public enterprise. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is an international, inter-governmental organization, supported by 28 European states. The objectives of the Centre include the provision of medium-range forecasts to the meteorological offices of its member states and cooperating states, maintaining a data archive, and providing assistance in advanced education and support to the World Meteorological Organization in implementing its programmes.
If PAG-ASA is able to gain access as well as contribute to an organized network of database such as the VGISC, it would be a great source of knowledge, research materials as well as real-time weather forecast information that can corroborate PAG-ASA’s operational forecasting and research needs.

(Sources and related links: http://www.simdat.eu; http://www.ecmwf.int; http://ercim-news.ercim.org/grid-technology-makes-weather-forecasts-without-boundaries-a-reality )

Our Proposal to PAG-ASA (1)

The most viable solution for PAG-ASA is a comprehensive modernization of its weather forecasting capabilities. First and foremost, it should start installing basic devices such as the Doppler Radar which is very useful in predicting amount of rainfall. However, the underlying principle PAG-ASA must consider is that to be able to provide accurate and timely weather information, it must continuously upgrade its capabilities in both hardware (workstations, servers, telecommunication lines and terminals, specialized radars, satellites and other specialized atmospheric data reader) and software aspects (program codes, models, compilers, data translators, etc.)

PAG-ASA is claiming that it uses the most advanced weather prediction model in MM5, but actually there were already newer model versions developed that succeeded MM5. If PAG-ASA does not allot effort and resources to upgrade its hardware facilities as well as learn these newer models, then we cannot take advantage of the benefits that IT advancement is currently offering. For example, MM5 resolution ranges from 20 km to 60 km but with the newer model, it can even scale from up to several meters to thousand of kilometers.

NCAR in cooperation with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other meteorological agencies and weather forecasting laboratories worldwide recently introduced the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model which is the next-generation mesoscale numerical weather prediction system. WRF like the MM5 is developed through an open source approach, but unlike the MM5, WRF is the first model to have both operational forecasting capabilities and simulation features for research needs. It offers flexible and efficient computations for operational weather forecasting that considers physics and numerics while on the other hand can also conduct simulations using actual or idealized data for research purposes. The software architecture of the WRF supports computational parallelism, system extensibility, multiple dynamic cores and 3-dimensional variational data assimilation system. WRF also incorporates data from satellites, radars, and a wide range of other tools with greater ease than earlier models, thus the model outperformed its predecessors in more than 70% of the situations.

WRF is also freely provided by the NCAR. If PAG-ASA is not been able to capitalize on this latest IT enhancement, then it is foregoing the opportunity to have an efficient and flexible operation forecasting model with research capabilities. Of course there will be resources and efforts needed in order for PAG-ASA to shift from its existing forecasting models to the newer ones. Amongst them are:

(a) Upgrading hardware that will support the new forecast modeling software system
(b) Technical skills and know-how in running the program codes of the new model
(c) Trainings and workshops for PAG-ASA employees in relation to using the new model
(d) New set of license needed in operating the model

However, most probable than not that the gain from modernization of PAG-ASA’s IT capabilities can surely outweigh the costs associated in implementing new model and installing new set of hardware and programs.

International meteorological agencies such as the National Center for Atmospheric Research are important organization that PAG-ASA must create good alliance with. NCAR has the technology, knowledge and capabilities in developing state-of-the art weather forecasting models that PAG-ASA cannot do on its own. NCAR also has a wide range of experience in collaborating efforts with established weather agencies and laboratories worldwide in the development and continuous improvement of technology-based forecasting models such as the WRF. Amongst NCAR’s partners in developing WRF are the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL), the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), the Naval Research Laboratory, the University of Oklahoma, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). In addition, program codes contributed by the community of users are also considered in developing and improving models. This open source approach will make it easier for PAG-ASA to be kept updated. Furthermore, workshops, tutorials, supports and program code updates are also provided to users by NCAR and therefore we don’t see any major problem that will arise should PAG-ASA opt to be one of the 4,000 registered users of WRF in 77 countries.
(Sources and related links: http://www.wrf-model.org/index.php; http://www.inergizedigital.com/news/WDTPressRelease-January-27-2009.pdf)

What technology does PAG-ASA use now?

PAG-ASA is proud to claim that it uses the “latest” computer programs in predicting the atmospheric weather as well as related environmental phenomena. It is currently using the “Mesoscale Model 5” (MM5) version 3 which was developed by the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Colorado, USA in cooperation with Pennsylvania State University. MM5 is used by PAG-ASA to simulate on a larger scale any atmospheric disturbances affecting the Philippine region and adjacent areas including tropical cyclones, monsoons and other weather anomalies. MM5 requires the use of Portland Fortran Compiler.
(Source and related link: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/)

The MM5 is a limited-area, nonhyrdostatic, hydrostatic, terrain-following sigma coordinated model developed to simulate and predict regional-scale atmospheric circulation. This fifth generation mesoscale model is an open source program which was developed and further improved by program codes contributed by the various users,
Another software model PAG-ASA uses is the “High Resolution Model” or HRM. It was developed by the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD) in the Meteorological Office of Germany and is meant for 3-day short-term forecasts. HRM employs equations and variables such as temperature, wind speed, humidity and pressure in determining the state of the atmosphere. However, PAG-ASA isn’t the one with the capabilities and technology to collect atmospheric data and process them into forecast. Instead, the global forecast is done by DWD in Germany and the information affecting the Philippine area of responsibility is sent to PAG-ASA on a regular basis. PAG-ASA uses a Preginet server in downloading data from the DWD website twice a day. Downloading time takes about 70 minutes for a 78 hour forecast using 8 dual processor XeonEM64T, 512 MB memory, 2.4 mHz. HRM is also written in Fortran 90 and requires Intel Fortran Compiler (IFC) as its compiler program. PAG-ASA uses Debian as its Linux Operating System for its HRM.
(Source and related link: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/)

There are also other forecasting models used by PAG-ASA for different purposes. Amongst them are:
(a) Wave Model developed by MeteoFrance called VAG Model (1987) which is used to predict behavior of the ocean waves;
(b) ETA Model initially developed by Yugoslavia in the 1970’s with upgrades until 1991, is used to simulate weather conditions covering the entire archipelago and adjacent areas
(c) Storm Surge Model developed by Japan Meteorological Agency and is used to simulate and predict storm surges.

PAG-ASA currently utilizes 36 forecast stations covering the entire country.
(Sources and related link: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/)

This only tells us that Information Technology (IT) becomes a valuable aspect in the field of weather forecasting. It is also this same reason why PAG-ASA should not just settle for what it currently has. Technology and Innovation are fast-pacing commodities nowadays and with the ever changing and improving computer hardware, software and programs, PAG-ASA must be aware and adoptive to these IT developments available because they are essential components of accurate weather forecasting service. Inaccuracy is becoming an unacceptable excuse given the sprouting improvements in Information Techonolgy nowadays.

But what benefit is it to generate the most accurate information about the weather condition if such cannot be timely communicated by PAG-ASA to the concerned authorities and the general public at stake? Information technology plays an important role in establishing communication network. Presently, PAG-ASA uses the mass media through the radio and television in delivering the latest weather bulletin to the public. The popularity of the internet as well as mobile communication supported-weather services also provided alternative means in knowing PAG-ASA’s forecasts.

However, despite these channels, it’s more probable that during actual calamities, electricity and communication lines may be down or greatly interrupted like what happened in the recent Ondoy incident when unavailability of electricity supply made it difficult to relay information and coordinate disaster control measures. And so therefore, it’s a great challenge for PAG-ASA to keep-up in enhancing its weather forecasting capabilities and to establish an integrated communication network system that will help gather real time inputs and disseminate crucial weather advisories to inform the public and coordinate with the authorities preventive as well as disaster management activities such as evacuation, rescue and relief operations. universities, government laboratories and meteorological agencies worldwide. The MM5 is supported by several auxiliary programs which are mostly written in Fortran and collectively known as the MM5 modeling system. In addition, what’s good about the open source approach for MM5 is that PAG-ASA can use it for free since it is provided and supported by NCAR to every user for free although there are some licenses needed for the use of the compiler. Program documentations are also available online.
(Source and related link: http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/overview.html)

Example of Technology in Weather Forecasting and Advisory

A good example is the Doppler Radar which originated from the works of an Austrian physicist Christian Doppler in the 1840’s. (Related links: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doppler_radar) The Doppler radar sends out radio waves in the air from an antenna and as radio waves travel in the atmosphere and hit objects in the air such as clouds, raindrops, dusts and even insects, the waves are scattered and reflected to all direction, some of them bounced back and collected by the Doppler radar itself. The frequency of the recovered waves are then translated by computers into information and images that measure the speed, direction, density as well as location of atmospheric objects such as wind and precipitation.

In short the Doppler radar could have determined the amount of rainfall that Ondoy will bring. Those information could have warned the authorities and public of the intensity of the possible rainfall to come, the exact location and time of its arrival. That could have changed the story of Ondoy. Unfortunately and ironically, the poor Filipinos despite being situated in the typhoon belt doesn’t even have a single Doppler radar.

(Source and related link: http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wdoppler.htm)

Role of IT in Weather Forecasting and Advisory

Over the years, Information Technology continuously takes an important role in meteorological and weather forecasting. The proliferation of supercomputers, complex models, programs, software and state-of-the art radar, satellite and other atmospheric data-gathering devices dramatically improved the timeliness and accuracy of weather forecasts. The introduction of computer programs helped weather bureaus and laboratories around the world to develop and continuously upgrade various forecasting model software based on complex mathematical equations, atmospheric data inputs and previous forecasts to generate more accurate weather condition forecast.

Ondoy and PAG-ASA

One of the most tragic events in the history of the Philippines was the recent flood brought by typhoon “Ondoy” that hit Metro Manila and nearby provinces in the last week of September 2009. The typhoon was only categorized as signal no. 1 by PAG-ASA which caused the public little alarm. Surprisingly, Ondoy poured heavy rains for hours which caused the water level to rise tremendously, flooding Metro Manila and Central Luzon at no time. But how did it happen?

Why was PAG-ASA not able to determine or at least predict the possible extent of Ondoy’s damaging power? If PAG-ASA had enough information beforehand about the upcoming amount and extent of Ondoy’s rainfall, maybe it could have prevented or at least minimized the tremendous damages incurred on properties and loss of many lives.

Source: http://midfield.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/ondoy-leaves1.jpg

http://in-indie.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/ondoy.jpg

An Introduction to PAG-ASA

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration

(PAG-ASA)

The primary mission of PAGASA is to provide protection of life and property against natural hazards due to typhoons, floods, drought, giant waves, high seas, etc., to utilize scientific knowledge and information as an effective instrument to ensure the safety, well being, economic security and improve the quality of life of all the people and the environment; and to promote national progress and contribute to regional socio-economic development through various applications of meteorology, geophysics and space sciences (including astronomy).

Sources: http://www.chd8.doh.gov.ph/reachev/images/pagasa/pagasa.jpg

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/mission.shtml